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Predictions for Winter 2013-14. What's your guess?

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  • Predictions for Winter 2013-14. What's your guess?

    Well, whaddya think? It doesn't take a weatherman to tell you which way the wind blows, and they can't predict with much accuracy what will be, only what was and by projection, what could be.

    Will it be a low year, average, or big?
    13
    Below Average Snowfall
    30.77%
    4
    Average Snowfall
    38.46%
    5
    Above Average Snowfall
    30.77%
    4

    ain't no turn like tele!

  • #2
    I firmly believe in carrying an umbrella to keep the rain away (and its corollary), so I'm saying it's going to be a drought year with a few sprinkles in November that gets everyone's hopes up, then a prolonged drought, then one big dump in February, immediately followed by a Pineapple Express that washes everything away.
    Last edited by Baaahb; 7 September 2013, 10:17 AM.

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    • #3
      Professional opinion for Utah: We Have No Idea!

      http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspo...ki-season.html

      This is a great blog by U of U Atmospheric Sciences prof and b.c. skier Jim Steenburgh. This specific post includes about 60 yrs of data showing virtually no correlation between El Nino cycles and snowfall at Alta.

      But, since we've had a couple mediocre years, I'll vote for "regression to the mean" and an overshoot to Above Average.

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      • #4
        Tahoe has never had drought three years in a row, so my call is above average Winter for 13-14. There's precipt out there, Vegas has had record amounts of rain lately, we just need a westerly shift plus pineapple equals havoc.
        "Just say no to groomed snow"

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        • #5
          I predict a great winter for the northeast. Haven't encountered a bad one yet. Above average snow means plenty for all. Below average means more snow for those willing to go look for it. I'm a big fan of below average.
          good snow comes in many different types and consistencies. STICK YER FEET IN IT!!!

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          • #6
            No predictions from me. I'll just start washing my car regularly sometime in November.
            It's turns! Of course it's worth the hike!

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            • #7
              Better than the last two years.

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              • #8
                We've had the warmest winter on record here in Australia (following our hottest summer on record), with a correspondingly terrible ski season.
                New Zealand has also had it's warmest winter on record.
                Apparently the Southern Ocean didn't cool to its normal winter temperature causing the warm weather and lack of good snowfalls.
                I hope the northern winter is not the same!!

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                • #9
                  What I've read suggests a mild el Nino developing mid-season. Based on that, and a few other things, I'm guessing (for the Sierra, meaning somewhat applicable to the Wasatch as well) that we'll have what's come to be somewhat of the norm for the past decade or so, namely a season that only starts to get going mid-December (after an early-November fake-out of course that all but entirely melts by Thanksgiving), limps along into January, and then we get some excellent dumps in Feb & Mar and it ends up being right around normal overall.

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                  • #10
                    The hippie-dippy weatherman says tonight will be dark, with scattered light by morning. Beyond that, I just hope it stops raining for a little while. Winter will take care of itself. We will get some snow, some wind, some warm temps, and perhaps an upslope or two. Good skiing will be had.

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                    • #11
                      Wasatch: An early November tease, enough to tempt, not enough to cover the rocks, a dry December forming a nasty depth hoar problem with an Xmas dump, followed by a few side country avalanche fatalities. Jan-March near normal but an early spring killing good skiing by mid April.
                      Last edited by Sheik Yerbouti; 16 September 2013, 08:55 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Cdn. Rockies

                        It's been a while since we've had a horrible, horrible season. Last year started out great, then a six week drought starting in late December did a number on the snowpack. Still, it ended up being pretty great, and we felt ok about pushing into reasonably committing terrain come mid-March.

                        In town, we had a very mild winter. Very few days colder than -20, and no -30 at all... It's too soon to say that the truly bitter winters are a thing of the past (10/11 was gray, windy and colder than -20 -- ambient, not wind chill -- for weeks on end), but you gotta wonder.

                        It's hard to say what to expect going forward. I'd like to see a repeat of last year's early season, with a strong westerly jet bringing unusually mild storms to the Rockies, which gave us a nice, tight snowpack.... I know that the mid-season drought and facet rot is probably unavoidable, but maybe if I promise to behave, the snow gods will take pity??

                        Also chinooks. Love me them chinooks. Wreaks havok on K-Country, but in favoured spots on the divide the snow will pile up, while nice sunny warm weather for us working stiffs in the city.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Sheik Yerbouti View Post
                          Wasatch: An early November tease, enough to tempt, not enough to cover the rocks, a dry December forming a nasty depth hour problem with an Xmas dump, followed by a few side country avalanche fatalities. Jan-March near normal but an early spring killing good skiing by mid April.
                          spot on. then in mid april winter returns providing amazing spongy hero medium density snow on bomber base with no one around. oh and alta is finally open for the season.
                          good snow comes in many different types and consistencies. STICK YER FEET IN IT!!!

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                          • #14
                            I think it'll be a crappy season all the way through. Hopefully I will be pleasantly disappointed.
                            Drive the cuff!

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                            • #15
                              Ummmmmm...
                              Attached Files

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